Global Warming

The British scientists say , that global warming in the 20th century can be explained by a complex of the reasons both human and a natural origin.

In the model of a climate ,scientists have compared data of emissions of hotbed gases in an atmosphere, solar cycles, a level of ozone, sulfur and a volcanic dust.

Work was made in the center of forecasting and research of climate “Hadley” which is a part of the British governmental meteorological agency, and also in Rutherford - Appleton Laboratory. Results of work have been published in the magazine “Science”.

In the beginning of a century , the natural reasons rendered greatest influence on process of global warming, as scientists have found after the analysis of model.. Now warming is mainly caused by the human factor.

Scientists speak, that this work allows them to predict ,with greater confidence, the future contribution of the human to process of global warming.

Scientists write that more than 80 % of observable fluctuations of average temperatures, and also more than 60 % of fluctuations of temperatures of the ground for the periods from 10 - 50 years are caused by forces of an external source.

Average temperature near a surface of the Earth in last three decades increased on 0,2 degrees of Celsius each ten years.

Similar increase was observed between 1910 and 1945 , after that the temperature has stopped to raise - until the middle 1970. Until now, models of a climate with greater effort has explained warming in first half of century, as they ignored natural factors.

For the first time researches put side by side the most important reasons of human and natural character.

Authors of the science project tell, that their model considered changes in the structure of greenhouse gases in an atmosphere, including carbon dioxide and methane. The model also considered changes in the configuration of ozone in a troposphere and a stratosphere, and also changes in the structure of sulfur.

” When we have included both human, and natural factors “, - authors wrote. - ” we have concluded, that both anthropogenic, and natural factors are necessary for considering for an explanation of change of temperature on the surface of the Earth in 20th century Model successfully reproduces changes of temperature on a large proportion during 20th century “.

At the same time, scientists have noted, that the model does not explain changes of temperature of the Atlantic in the beginning of a century and fluctuation of temperature in the Northern Atlantic last thirty years. Scientists, however, consider, that they managed to reproduce the main tendencies in fluctuations of temperature during all century.

Their conclusion consists that present warming will proceed during following several tens years. By their calculations, it makes 2-3 degrees for hundred years.

Process of global warming can change distribution of infectious diseases. According to data of the Colombian university, global warming will lead to additional scale distribution of known infectious diseases, and also will “transmit” related diseases from regions which latitudes are nearer to equator to regions with the moderate and cold climate.

” The Washington Profile ” informs that it is not obviously possible to make exact forecasts nowadays, however it is noticeable, that the geography of diseases will depend on distribution of insects and microorganisms.

Scientists mark, that in the world will grow the quantity of a malaria illnesses , which is transmit by mosquitoes. If the temperature of a terrestrial surface will raise, mosquitoes will migrate in regions of a planet which was earlier inaccessible to them; in parallel with it - the number of the people bitten by mosquitoes and quantity of diseases will increase.

The second most probable scenario is change of character epidemics of flu. In tropical latitude regions people are sick by a flu during all year , while in cool regions epidemic arises in a cold season of year. If global warming will proceed, inhabitants of Northern America, the Europe and Northern Asia will be sick by a flu during all year.

In turn, research of Michigan university has shown, that the world can expect epidemics of the diseases similar to a cholera.

Global warming will be accompanied by increase in quantity of typhoons, hurricanes, flooding and so on. It will inevitably lead to pollution of sources of potable water, to density of the population, and also to phenomenon of “ecological refugees “. Result can become - rough distribution of intestinal infections, and also a tuberculosis, respiratory and venereal diseases.

The general data on forests of the World as the tank of carbon and a role of the Russian forests

Evaluation according to the Center of ecology problems and efficiency of woods of the Russian Academy of Science:

Of 500 billion tons from a ground biomass - the part of the Russian woods are 34 billion tons , from which coniferous woods take part of more than 25 billion tons. Ground area of the forest fund of the Russian Federation contain nearby 250 billion tons, and ground area actually covered by a wood - nearby 125 billion tons), detritus (organic substance as a product of rotting ) in Russian forest it is a lot of - nearby 18 billion tons and this tank of carbon also deserves separate consideration .

Since 1850 to 1998, as a result of burning mineral fuel (and in small part by manufacture of cement) in an atmosphere it has been thrown out 270 ± 30 billion tons in the form of CO2. Approximately half from this quantity - 136 ± 55 billion tons has eject in an atmosphere because of exploitation of forests and other changes in land care. As a result concentration CO2 In an atmosphere has grown almost on third: from 285 up to 366 volumetric parts on one million .

Thus climatic data of Paleozoic - are already enough exact to conclude, that for the last several millennia were not similar changes on the Earth.

However, growth of concentration would be much stronger, if not ecosystems have not replied to emission by greater absorption. Only 43 % of anthropogenic emissions CO2 have remained in an atmosphere, the rest has been absorbed by ecosystems of a land and ocean, in approximately equally. However this “fifty-fifty” concerns only to the entire period from the middle of 19th century.

The balance is essentially displaced, CO2 is in an atmosphere pretty “mobile” and on the average present of a molecule CO2 in an atmosphere are 2,5 years , after that it is absorbed by a land or ocean ecosystem. In 90-s’ years of 20th century ground ecosystems absorbed a much less anthropogenic CO2 than ocean.

Anthropogenic emission of CO2 from burning mineral fuel and manufacture of cement in 90-s’ years has made 6,3±0,6 billion tons/year. Absorption by ocean in 1989-1998 is estimated as 2,3±0,8 billion tons/year, and net-absorption by ground ecosystems only 0,7±1,0 billion tons/year. Thus gross-absorption by woods and others ground ecosystems makes 2,3±1,3 billion tons/year, and emission from decomposition and burning of a biomass 1,6±0,8 billion tons/year.

In the presented world balance the role of the Russian woods is very essential. Annual deposition of carbon in herbal –mass of forest fund of Russia (gross-gain) in 2003 is estimated as 0,25 billion tons/year. There are also the estimations speaking about great significance: 0,4 billion tons/year for ground herbal –mass plus 0,2 billion tons/year for detritus . Anyway it is a lot of - 10-25 % from world values.

Volumes of decomposition and burning of a biomass It’s difficult to define, and without it, it is impossible to define net-absorption (it can be and negative size - emission when the gain is less than decomposition). According to a difference of deposition of carbon in biomass of forest fund of Russia in 1988-1993 and in 2003 change are absolutely insignificant – nearby 0,1 billion tons for 13 years, which is much less, than accuracy of an estimation. Change of the maintenance of organic carbon in ground area of forest fund for this time also is insignificant. However it is necessary to note that in both cases there is no monotonous change of sizes, both deposition and the maintenance in ground - both parties fluctuate in time.

Other approached estimations speak, that under the order of size decomposition and burning equally 0,1 billion tons/year, and net-absorption makes 0,5 billion tons/year . On the other hand calculations of Institute of a global climate and ecology speak about strongly varying values of net-absorption in 90-s’: in a range from 0 up to 0,35 billion tons/year

From estimations resulted above, despite of their all nearness, it is possible to make a number of precise qualitative conclusions:

· Anthropogenic emission of CO2 in an atmosphere (from burning mineral fuel) approximately is 25 times less then natural, but it renders cardinal influence on concentration CO2 in an atmosphere.

· The vegetation contains ,approximately, 80 times less carbon, than ocean, and net-absorption of ecosystems dry more than 3 times less of net-absorption of ocean, nevertheless, forests play a significant role in restraint of growth CO2 concentration in an atmosphere.

· In comparison with others ground ecosystems of the world, forests of Russia play an outstanding role in absorption CO2 from an atmosphere, the role of Russian forests is insignificant in comparison with a role of world ocean.

· Net-absorption CO2 by forests of Russia as a whole, estimated as from 0,2 up to 0,5 billion tons/year, and that makes 3-8 % from world emission of CO2 from burning mineral fuel - in 2001 equal 6,5 billion tons/year. For Russia emissions from burning fuel (it makes about 80 % from all anthropogenic emissions of hotbed gases Russia) are estimated in 2001 as 0,6 billion tons/year. i.e. , Russian woods, approximately, on half “compensate” the Russian anthropogenic emission of hotbed gases.