Global Warming

However a computer is an ingenious invention of mankind. By its help scientists can look both in the far-off past, and in the infinite future. Certainly, it is impossible to be absolutely assured that all was or will be, but it is possible to receive a provisional picture of the validity. So, computer modeling has helped to find out the reason of mass disappearance of various organisms on the earth 250 million years ago. Most likely, for many representatives of fauna change of a climate became fatal, and concrete - global warming.

It is necessary to note, that hypothesis about sharp change of a climate of a planet ,which has been caused by extraordinary volcanic activity, the American scientists have put forward a in the beginning of 2005th year. At that time Peter Ward has declared, that all this has led to well-known ” Great extinction ” , which has happened about 250 million years ago. The researcher has named the main reason of this incident -the Siberian volcanoes which have thrown out huge amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Then the American experts have developed the theory which has been put forward by Peter Ward. For this purpose they have lead very detailed modeling of a climate ,of that epoch, on a computer. As it has appeared, 250 million years ago mid-annual temperatures have rapidly jumped up to that level, which is on 10-30 degrees above nowadays mid-annual temperatures. Thus there were catastrophic changes for many organisms: not only a surface of the ground and the atmosphere have considerably heated up, but still oceans water (on a depth ,approximately, three kilometers).

As a result , at different levels of global ocean streams of water have changed. As consequence in water mass was considerably reduced the maintenance of oxygen, and in many layers it’s became simple insignificant. Thus, ancient sea deep-water substances have simply choked. Such miserable part has comprehended about 95 % of inhabitants of sea depths. The heatstroke should be reflected and in those representatives of fauna who live on a surface of the planet. About three quarters from them also have died out.

Authors of the given research are assured, that, precisely, global warming became the reason of mass extinction on the Earth. At the same time supporters of the version about falling a huge asteroid also have the certain proofs of they truth. Thus, quite naturally, correct can be both points of view. Experts emphasize, that both of the factors, could strengthen the effect, made mutually.

* The international advice on change of a climate, ( 2,5 thousand scientists from 130 countries) in 2007 has predicted that if the world temperature will raise on 1,5–2,5 degrees under threat of disappearance will be 30 % of animals and plants.

*By 2050 more than 1 billion person will suffer from continual shortage of potable water.

*By 2020 ,in hot parts of a planet, the area of agricultural goods will be cut by half.

* If the ice cover of Greenland will thaw completely, the level of the World ocean can rise on 7 m.

* In case if the ice cap of Greenland will thaw 20 %, and Antarctic’s – on 5 %, it will lead to rise of a level of the World ocean on 4–5 m.

* The level of the World ocean rose annually 3 millimeters from the beginning of 1990 to 2006.

* Increase of a level of ocean on 1 m will lead to that 145 million person will appear in areas of flooding and overflowing. It can cause disappearance of some states, for example Holland, Pakistan and Israel, flooding of the greater part of Japan and some other island states

* By estimations of the National Climatic Data Center, in the last century the maintenance of carbonic gas in a world atmosphere has grown from 300 up to 380 parts on 1 million, and the average temperature of a terrestrial surface has grown approximately 0,7 degrees.

* The last decade of the 20th century became the warmest during action of regular temperature measurements (since the middle of 19th century). 1990’s years were included into number of the warmest 15 years, six years of this decade were the “hottest” years of the century.

* The temperature raises most quickly in Arctic regions (Siberia, Alaska, Canada). By estimations of the international group of scientists (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment), near North Pole temperatures grew twice more quickly, than as a whole on a planet. It is supposed, that by 2040 the Arctic ocean can remain without an ice.

* In Northern hemisphere the spring (in the temperature sense, not in the calendar sense) start week earlier, and winter – a week later, than in last century

* According to the United Nations, for the period from 1990 to 2004 - Turkey (+72,6 %), Spain (+49 %), Portugal (+41 %), Canada and Greece (+26,6 % each), Australia (+25,1 %), Ireland (+23,1 %), New Zealand (+21,3 %), Liechtenstein (+18,5 %) and the USA (+15,8 %) began to throw out much more of hotbed gases in the atmosphere.

Most considerably have lowered volumes of emissions of hotbed gases in the atmosphere- Lithuania (–60,4 %), Latvia (–8,5 %), Ukraine (–55,3 %), Estonia (–51 %), Bulgaria (–49 %), Belarus (–41,6 %), Romania (–41 %), Russia (–32 %), Hungary (–31,8 %) and Poland (–31,2 %).

* It is promising to reduce emissions of hotbed gases by 60–70 % before 2050 by setting up the penalty of 300–400 dollars for ton of the carbonic gas ,which has got in the atmosphere ,.

* 1998 Year – the warmest terrestrial temperature for all history of measurements. 2001-2006 have closely approach to this record.

* According to NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), the average temperature of a terrestrial surface in 1969 made 13,99 degrees, in 2000 was 14,43 degrees.

* By estimations of some expert, probability of that consequences of global warming will be completely moderate and even, possibly, positive, makes 5–10 %.

* There is a probability within the limits of 5–10 %, that the temperature of the Earth can rise on 5–6 degrees by 2100 .

* In 1992, after signing the Frame convention of the United Nations on change of a climate, more than 4 thousand scientists (including 72 Nobel winners) from 106 states have signed the Heidelberg appeal in which they have called for more rational scientific approach to the solution of environmental problems. In 1997 the Leipzig declaration has been signed ,which was prepared by opponents of the popular theory nowadays of an explanation of the reasons of global warming. After that has been signed the Oregon’s petition (1998), which have joined more than 19 thousand scientists.

* There is a theory according to which the Earth heats up about every 1,5 thousand years, and the role of carbonic gas in this process is absolutely not understandable. It seems that the Earth will be suitable to heat up in forthcoming centuries, on the other hand the reasons of it have astronomical character.

* After a collapse of the USSR the quantity of meteorological stations in Russia, especially in its sub polar areas, was considerably reduced. Hence, at calculation of world middle temperatures have been excluded data about low temperatures which are traditionally permanent in this region.

* In history of the planet Earth there were many warming, for example 2 thousand years ago, on the ground was warmer, than today, –as a result children’s death rate was reduced and average lifetime has increased, productivity has raised, technological development was accelerated.

* “Revived” volcano Saint Helena located in “industrial” state of Washington (the largest city – Seattle), is thrown out in the atmosphere daily twice more oxides of sulfur, than all industry of state for a year.