Global Warming

Global warming can lead to the essential reduction of production in the agriculture by 2080 and strike on some developing states. The production of cereal crops in some rich countries will increase in the same time. The data of studies, published on Wednesday, testify about this, transfers Reuters.

India, Pakistan, the large part of Africa and Latin America will suffer most strongly, the author of research, economist William Klein considers . In their turn, USA, the large part of Europe, Russia and Canada can increase production in the agricultural sector, if the process of global warming will continue on present rates - it is spoken in the research.

In total, by 2080 productivity of world agriculture can decrease on 3-16 %, the given researches confirm, published by The Center of Global Development and by The Peterson Institute for International Economics from Washington.

Among the developed countries, the gloomiest is the forecast for agriculture of Australia where productivity of agriculture can decrease on 16-27 %. Among developing countries, productivity in India can be reduced to 29-38 %, in Sudan and Senegal - more than on 50 %.

According to Klein, such difference in forecasts is caused by the obscure power of the influence of emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere on the agricultural crops.

Because of the global warming in the northern states, including in the northern regions of the USA, Russia and Canada, agricultural season will become longer however the world does not need to rely on growth of productivity in these regions, Klein believes.

” By the end of century they, probably, will receive so much money from export of energy carriers, that charge of their currencies will be very high “, - he has told.

Escalation of currencies of the countries with a high level of productivity will make the acquisition of Russian or Canadian vegetative agricultural production too expensive for the majority of other states.

While one after another are passed the international conferences, where the concerned scientists think how to resist the offensive of heat to the earth, increasingly more persistently are heard the voices of their opponents. They declare that already in the very near future we will shake from cold. And they give convincing arguments.

To understand, what climate will be, it is necessary to watch first of all the Sun. So the employee of the institute of Arctic and Antarctic scientific research Alexander Yegorov considers. As is known, its activity varies with a cycle in 12 years. The scientist has analyzed, that happens as a result of pressure of air near the earth’s surface. He studied the period from1923 to2005. It has appeared, when the Sun is maximally active - pressure becomes abnormal.

Especially this is manifested in two regions. The first is located in the northern part of Atlantic Ocean and the Atlantic Arctic, the second - in the north of Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean Arctic. The most curious, that changes of the pressure in these two regions always occur in the reversed phase. When it grows in the Atlantic, then it falls in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

And here if pressure above the Atlantic center falls, carry of heat to Arctic regions amplifies. So was in 1920 - 1940th years when in Arctic regions has become warmer.

Yegorov have noticed that the pressure jumps affect climate. Thus, if it above the Atlantic region grows, then less it is transferred warm waters from the temperate latitudes to the Arctic through the strait between Greenland and Europe. Specifically, this situation was observed during the sequential cycles of solar activity in 60’s -80’s years of 20 th century and coincided with a cold snap in the Arctic regions. But if pressure above the Atlantic center falls, heat transfer into the Arctic is strengthened. So it was in 1920’s – 1940’s years, when in the Arctic grew warm.

In the new solar cycle which has begun in 1986, pressure has fallen in the most extensive region of Northern hemisphere, as became, by Yegorov’s opinion, the reason of present global warming. In a following solar cycle the pressure above northern Atlantic can be changed, and for the change to heat will arrive cold.

The international expedition of oceanologists has found out full absence of an ice in Laptev Sea. Vessel “Victor Buynitskiy ” with scientists onboard could rise up to 80 degrees of the north latitude and conduct comprehensive studies of the distribution of greenhouse gases at the large depths. The participant of expedition the employee of The Pacific Oceanological Institute - Far East branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Igor Semiletov has told about this today. Before the Titanic, the Fram was the most famous ship in the world.

“We passed those places; where more than a century ago drifted, stopped up in ices, legendary vessel “The Fram” of Fridtjof Nansen, and anywhere have not met icy pour on. Northern seaway practically for entire elongation in this year is passed for the vessels. Temperature of water everywhere is not below plus three degrees of Celsius. This makes the results of our expedition even more significant for understanding of the processes of global warming “, it described Semiletov.

The largest in the program of The International Arctic Year expedition left on the vessel “Victor Buynitskiy ” from the Norwegian port The Kirkiness in the beginning of September. On its board was group of oceanologists from Russia, Canada, USA, Great Britain and Germany. Within 45 days of expedition it was necessary to carry out researches along all Arctic coasts - from the Barents to the East Siberian Sea. Now scientists work in the Laptev Sea, where carry out researches of distribution of greenhouse gases on the large depths of 2 km. Such studies are conducted for the first time. Previously it was possible to obtain data only from the depths of 100 meters.

According to the scientists, similar comprehensive studies at the Arctic continental shelf will make it possible to obtain the qualitatively new data about the entering of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and to forecast the scenarios of the influence of warming of the climate of planet. Far-Eastern oceanologists assume that the warming of climate leads to the destruction of coastal ice complex, a coastal permafrost and the isolation of carbon dioxide and methane, which even more greatly strengthen “greenhouse” effect.