The international officials usually speak about a problem of global warming hopefully, assuring, that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be reduced. However, experts on a climate often speak out not so optimistically. Sir David King and John Schellnhuber, the advisors of governments of Germany and the Great Britain , the countries applying for the leading part in studying of global warming, have declared to the BBC News, that it will be hardly possible to keep emissions of greenhouse gases at a level, sufficient to not allow warming global temperature of 2′ ?.
The modern science considers that at such rise in temperature billions of people will collide with the shortage of water and food. Moreover, professor King assumes, with 20 %-s’ probability, that the temperature will rise 3.7 C, and that can strike serious collision to the world economy.
The governments do not carry out plans on reduction of the emissions, accepted within the framework of the Kyoto protocol. So, Japan should lower emissions by 6 %, but instead of this has risen by 7 %. Italy has increased the emissions by 7.4 %, Spain – on 59.8 %. In the Great Britain emissions of greenhouse gases also steadily increase. Besides, there are the large developing countries, absolutely not obliged to reduce emissions within the limits of the Kyoto protocol.
Now the Great Britain and Germany has a plan on reduction of emissions by for the value to 40% from the present level, inform scientist to the BBC News. But the world will face with necessity to switch off completely carbonic gas from technological processes, which will require revolution in the technological and social plans. And although contemporary climatic models do not make it possible to make absolutely precise forecasts, the majority of scientists have agreed with the forecast, according to the interrogation lead by Dr Roger Rilke. Certainly, the official science can make mistakes (for example, in 1970’s many scientists expected a global cold snap).
Filippo Giorgi, the vice-president of the working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC and the head of the sector of terrestrial systems of the International Center of theoretical physics ( ICTP, Abdus Salam International Center), has carry out research in the field of the consequences of the global warming of a climate. He has investigated consequences of change of a climate from the point of view of geophysics: increasing temperatures, raising sea level, change in the sediments. The sense of his conclusions consists that for none country global warming will be advantage. All the government of the Earth will encounter, in one way or another, with the significant social problems caused by the process of global warming. The research will be published this in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS.